Egora · Signal Generator
Calibrated weather strategy · last pass 32 min ago
Last Pass
Candidates
Would Enter
Total Stake
Capture timing — hourly (continuous live stream)
Paper trades scored against settlement — includes provisional results once the city-local day has passed and the market has converged
15%
Win rate
12W · 67L
79
Resolved
11 pending
-0.02
PnL / unit
$ per 1-share position
-33.74
Kelly PnL
ROI -47.1%
Past entries vs the actual winning bucket · '~prov' = provisional (local day passed, price-inferred, not yet Polymarket-confirmed) · search, filter & sort
| City↕ | Date▼ | Lead↕ | Our bet↕ | Winner↕ | Entry↕ | Stake↕ | PnL↕ | Result↕ | PnL / unit↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tokyo— | Jun 8 | L1 | 25°C | 23°C | 0.15 | $0.55 | -$0.55 | LOST | -0.15 |
Seoul— | Jun 8 | L1 | 26°C | 24°C | 0.16 | $0.45 | -$0.45 | LOST | -0.16 |
London— | Jun 8 | L1 | 16°C | 16°C | 0.11 | $0.73 | +$5.94 | WON | +0.89 |
London— | Jun 8 | L1 | 19°C | 16°C | 0.19 | $0.33 | -$0.33 | LOST | -0.19 |
Helsinki— | Jun 8 | L1 | 21°C | 23°C | 0.10 | $0.78 | -$0.78 | LOST | -0.10 |
Cape Town— | Jun 8 | L1 | 19°C | 16°C | 0.06 | $0.98 | -$0.98 | LOST | -0.06 |
Tokyo— | Jun 7 | L1 | 20°C | 21°C | 0.05 | $1.03 | -$1.03 | LOST | -0.05 |
Shanghai— | Jun 7 | L1 | 26°C | 27°C | 0.18 | $0.39 | -$0.39 | LOST | -0.18 |
Seoul— | Jun 7 | L1 | 28°C or higher | 24°C | 0.05 | $3.53 | -$3.53 | LOST | -0.05 |
Paris— | Jun 7 | L1 | 20°C | 23°C | 0.03 | $1.10 | -$1.10 | LOST | -0.03 |
Paris— | Jun 7 | L1 | 21°C | 23°C | 0.12 | $0.65 | -$0.65 | LOST | -0.12 |
Panama City— | Jun 7 | L1 | 30°C | 28°C | 0.17 | $0.45 | -$0.45 | LOST | -0.17 |
Mark-to-market vs the live orderbook midpoint (~2-min); closed or 2+ days-out markets show the resolver's last-trade price (tagged 'last', ~4h) · NOT settled · click a header to sort
| City↕ | Date↕ | Lead↕ | Bucket↕ | Stake↕ | Entry↕ | Now (mid)↕ | Lean▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manila— | Jun 9 | L1 | 32°C | $2.19$0.39 in | 0.18 | 1.00 | +0.82 |
Busan— | Jun 10 | L1 | 30°C | $2.20$1.12 in | 0.01 | 0.03 | +0.01 |
Tokyo— | Jun 9 | L1 | 27°C | $0.20$1.19 in | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
London— | Jun 10 | L1 | 15°C | $0.73$0.81 in | 0.10 | 0.09 | -0.01 |
Helsinki— | Jun 9 | L1 | 21°C | $0.04$1.05 in | 0.04 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
Helsinki— | Jun 9 | L1 | 22°C | $0.02$1.01 in | 0.06 | 0.00 | -0.05 |
Tokyo— | Jun 9 | L1 | 26°C | $0.01$0.85 in | 0.09 | 0.00 | -0.09 |
Seoul— | Jun 10 | L1 | 26°C or higher | $0.32$1.30 in | 0.14 | 0.03 | -0.11 |
Seoul— | Jun 9 | L1 | 27°C or higher | $0.01$1.30 in | 0.16 | 0.00 | -0.16 |
Helsinki— | Jun 9 | L1 | 20°C | $0.01$0.36 in | 0.18 | 0.01 | -0.17 |
Tokyo— | Jun 9 | L1 | 24°C | $0.00$0.40 in | 0.18 | 0.00 | -0.18 |
| City | Date | Lead | Bucket | Forecast | Model P | Ask | EV | Stake | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seoul— | Jun 10 | L1 | 26°C or higher | 21.9° | 29% | $0.04 | +0.25 | $1.29 | WU |
When Polymarket lists each day's weather markets (first capture ≈ listing time). Lead → ~24h means strict 1-day-ahead; the listing time is the daily L1 open. All cities list together (not per-timezone).
| Target day | First listed (local) | Lead | Cities |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6 | 05/06/2026 · 12:09 | 20 h | 39 |
| Jun 7 | 06/06/2026 · 12:17 | 20 h | 39 |
| Jun 8 | 07/06/2026 · 03:10 | 1.2 d | 39 |
| Jun 9 | 07/06/2026 · 12:19 | 1.8 d | 39 |
| Jun 10 | 08/06/2026 · 12:17 | 1.8 d | 39 |
| Jun 11 | 09/06/2026 · 12:23 |
Candidates vs would-enter · last 7 days
Busan— | Jun 10 | L1 | 30°C | 28.6° | 23% | $0.03 | +0.20 | $1.05 | WU |
Why candidates were rejected this pass
32 min ago
Pass
+0.25
Best EV
16
Lead 1
0
Leads 2·3
| 1.8 d |
| 29 |